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NHC Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

National Hurricane Center - Tropical Weather Discussion (Atlantic)

AXNT20 KNHC 232236

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
636 PM EDT Fri Jun 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 08N27W to 20N24W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with a relatively sharp 700 mb trough between
21W-30W and an area of maximum 850 mb relative vorticity along the
axis from 11N-20N. With the Saharan dust in place over much of
the eastern Atlc waters E of 45W...only isolated moderate
convection is occurring in the vicinity of 10N27W embedded within
the ITCZ and near 24N21W at the northern extent of the wave.

Tropical wave extends from 04N48W to 13N48W moving W at 15-20 kt.
Broad and low-amplitude 700 mb troughing is noted between 45W-52W
with 850 mb relative vorticity maximized along the wave axis near
10N. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 04N-13N between

Tropical wave extends from 04N66W to 15N64W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave is moving within the southwestern periphery of 700 mb
troughing over the eastern Caribbean Sea and an area to the NE of
the Lesser Antilles to near 22N55W. This broad troughing aloft has
allowed wave energy to fracture to the NE of the axis and thus is
analyzed as a weak surface trough from 16N63W to 20N57W.
Scattered moderate convection remains mostly contained S of 12N
between 61W-67W across eastern Venezuela and Trinidad this
evening...however isolated showers are also possible from 13N-20N
between 56W-67W across Caribbean and Atlc waters.

Tropical wave extends from 11N91W to 19N89W moving W at 15-20 kt.
The wave coincides with subtle 700 mb troughing between 86W-92W as
it approaches a developing area of low pressure centered S-SW of
the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the East Pacific waters near 13N96W. As
the energy of the wave becomes absorbed into the low pressure area
during the next 24 to 36 hours...it will likely continue to
provide a focus for scattered showers and tstms across portions of
Central America and southern Mexico. In addition...an upper level
low is centered 20N91W that is providing ample lifting dynamics
across the area to support continued convection. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 12N-23N between 81W-92W.

The Monsoon Trough extends from 13N17W to 09N24W. The
Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from 09N24W to 03N39W
to 05N48W to 06N54W. Aside from convection associated with the
tropical waves...scattered moderate convection is from 01N-06N
between 40W-45W...and S of 07N between 53W-57W across interior
portions of French Guiana and Suriname.


Surface ridging extends from the SW North Atlc anchored by a 1021
mb high centered near 30N68W W-SW to near Brownsville Texas this
evening. The ridge supports moderate to fresh S-SE winds across
the basin that are forecast to shift E-SE on Saturday as the
ridge retreats E Saturday night into Sunday. While the ridge is
providing overall fair conditions for the northern Gulf...an upper
level low is centered over the SW Gulf waters near 20N91W. Middle
to upper level lifting dynamics are generating isolated showers
and tstms across the SE and S-central Gulf this evening S of 25N
between 82W-90W. By Saturday night into Sunday...a weak frontal
boundary is expected to impact the northern waters as it stalls
along 30N and dissipates by Sunday night.

An upper level low is centered over the SW Gulf of Mexico near
20N91W supporting widely scattered showers and tstms across
portions of Central America and the NW Caribbean waters generally
N of 12N W of 81W. The presence of a tropical wave across the
Yucatan peninsula and Guatemala is providing additional focus for
this convective activity. Farther east...another tropical wave is
analyzed across the SE Caribbean generating scattered showers and
isolated tstms S of 12N between 61W-65W. Energy from the wave
continues to fracture to the NE of the axis as a weak surface
trough extends from 16N63W to 21N57W. Both the northern extent of
the wave and the surface trough are generating isolated showers
occurring across much of the eastern Caribbean waters...Puerto
Rico...the US/UK Virgin Islands...and Lesser Antilles.
Otherwise...moderate to fresh trades are expected to persist
overnight and gradually strengthen into fresh to strong breeze
levels Saturday across the central waters. Little change is
expected thereafter for the early portion of next week.

Mostly clear skies prevail currently across the island this
evening as surface ridging to the N across the SW North Atlc
remains in place providing mostly fair weather conditions. In
addition...an upper level anticyclone centered N of the island is
continuing to provide NE flow aloft and an environment of overall

An upper level anticyclonic circulation is centered offshore of NE
Florida near 29N78W that continues to support a 1021 mb high
centered SW of Bermuda near 30N68W. Most cloudiness and isolated
showers and tstms remain N of 30N between 63W-71W...with
generally gentle to moderate winds prevailing within the southern
periphery of the ridging. Otherwise...the remainder of the
central and eastern Atlc is under the influence of surface ridging
anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 34N47W and a 1029 mb high
centered N of the Azores near 40N26W. Water vapor imagery
indicates a middle to upper level low is centered near 26N53W and
is inducing a weak surface trough extending from 24N49W to 27N46W.
Isolated showers and possible tstms are occurring from 24N-29N
between 46W-52W.

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Posted: June 23, 2017, 10:36 pm